Gold vs euro, by the hallmark

Connecting to live data…

Look back at what karat gold did since 2015, then run Monte Carlo paths out to December 2028. Priced per gram the way a Beirut souk quotes it, with the euro kept in view.

Market today

Spot gold, $ per troy oz EUR/USD USD/LBP Grams held (per karat) Buyback rate, % of melt Purchase premium over melt, %

Lebanese shops quote per gram, usually in dollars, and pay melt value minus a deduction for used jewelry; workmanship (sanaa) isn't refunded. Calibrate the buyback rate with two or three real shop quotes before selling.

Looking back

Bought in

Looking ahead

Gold in € drift μ, %/yr Gold in € volatility σ, %/yr EUR/USD volatility, %/yr Gold–EUR/USD correlation Deposit rate, %/yr Inflation ahead, %/yr Shock distribution Paths Random seed Fan chart karat

Shaded bands: 5–95th and 25–75th percentile; line is the median. Values are at buyback. December 2026 is the 3-month mark.

How this works

Historical series: approximate annual-average LBMA gold in euros, annual EUR/USD, euro-area HICP and US CPI. When the server is connected, years with enough daily data are recomputed from live sources; the rest fall back to bundled estimates. Gold in euros and EUR/USD are simulated as two correlated geometric Brownian motions on monthly steps; gold in dollars is their product, and lira prices assume today's USD/LBP holds. It captures volatility, not regime changes or a new lira devaluation. It's a thinking tool, not investment advice.